Investing: Ways To Predict Future Cash Flows

When investing, the right place to pay for a stock isand will also depend on the competency of the
always vital and also very subjective due to the lackanalysts projecting the future.
of information as well as difficulty in predicting theAmong the above-mentioned future benefits, ODCF
future.is the most important cash flow measurement to
Basically, there are three main approaches in derivinginvestors. ODCF is commonly defined as operating
a company's value, which are income, market andearnings before depreciation, interest, taxes one
asset. Price-to-earnings ratio (PER), dividend yieldowner's compensation. All compensation and
(DY) and price-to-earnings ratio (P/BV) areoperating expenses are adjusted to market.
categorized under the market approach, where theThis method provides a more realistic picture of the
key principles behind these methods are dependentamount of money that will be available to pay to the
on their relative multiple against the market price.owners of the business as a return on their
For the asset approach, the valuation will be basedinvestment. This method is usually used to find the
on the fair market value of the company's assets. Ofvalue of a 100% or majority controlling interest in the
the three approaches, income is the primary onecompany.
used to value operating companies. It's based on theUsually, the main reason of most companies is to
principle that the company's value will be derivedreduce tax payment. They will try their best to
mainly from the sum of the future benefits expectedinclude a lot of expenses or have high salaries and
to be produced for the owner of the interest.director remunerations in order to reduce profit so
A rate of return or discount rate will then be used tothat tax payments will be lower. Thus, there is a big
discount all future benefits to the present value. It'sdifference between cash flow paid to the owner and
used to determine the fair market value of thecash flow distributed as dividends to other minority
normalized net operating assets.shareholders.
There are two main components in the incomeAs a result, ODCF is superior to income-related future
approach, which are the appropriate future benefitsbenefits like net income, pre-tax income, free cash
and discount rates. The future benefits can be in anyflow, EBIT and EBITDA, as the latter are unable to
of the following forms like owner's discretionary cashprovide the real picture of cash flow to a company's
flow (ODCF), net income after tax, net incomeowner. This is why some companies' owners are
before tax, free cash flow, earnings before interestwilling to be involved in loss making companies for
and tax (EBIT) and earnings before interest, taxes,years.
depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). ForThus, the ordinary investors who have no control in
investors, the discount rates are referred to as thethe company's operation need to be extra careful in
required rates of return.picking the right company in which to invest. They
Most of the time, however, analysts have difficulty inneed to select honest and competent owners who
deriving the above two components. If a business iswill always try their best to increase shareholders'
complex, predicting its future benefits and discountvalue.
rates with a high degree of certainty will be difficult