| Here are our observations about the top trends at | | | | sophistication of a normal laptop and a smartphone. |
| the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. We | | | | At the same time, you could see this as a blow for |
| spent five days there checking out the gadgets, | | | | native apps over the "net" part of netbooks, since |
| parties, and press conferences. Check out how well | | | | netbooks are supposed to be all about accessing the |
| these trends match up against our predictions from | | | | web, not downloading applications. Google has been |
| before the show. | | | | the most vocal about this, declaring that "all apps are |
| Information from: | | | | web apps" in its forthcoming netbook operating |
| | | | system, Chrome OS. |
| 3-D TV in the home. Some years, it's hard to figure | | | | The vision isn't limited to netbooks, but encompasses |
| out the trends at CES. This year, it was easy | | | | TVs, PCs, and other devices too. Samsung, in |
| because every big company talked about viewing 3-D | | | | particular, promoted its apps' cross-device capabilities. |
| movies, TV shows and games in the living room. | | | | It's not about TV apps, or phone apps. It's about |
| Blame it on Avatar. The advocates include LG | | | | apps that work across all devices, storing your |
| Electronics, Toshiba, Samsung, Sharp, Panasonic, | | | | activity so that your behavior on one device carries |
| Sony, Intel, and Nvidia. Some of the companies gave | | | | over the others. As companies release new gadgets |
| 30 percent of their press conference airtime to 3-D. | | | | (see the tablet trend above) and old devices get |
| Nvidia had the best 3-D viewable images (as far as | | | | web connected (see the TV trend below), these |
| we saw) on a racing game. That's because personal | | | | kinds of cross-device features will become more |
| computers can use the best dedicated 3-D graphics | | | | crucial. |
| hardware, making for more realism. Both Panasonic | | | | |
| and Samsung unveiled a whole ecosystem of | | | | New user interfaces abound. Ever since the iPhone |
| products from glasses to 3-D ready TVs. | | | | and the Nintendo Wii debuted, the tech industry has |
| | | | been experimenting with new ways to control |
| Last year, the 3-D craze was just getting started. | | | | devices. Touchscreens have infiltrated lots of |
| But the billion-dollar box office revenues of Avatar | | | | products, from Microsoft's pricey Surface tables to |
| made made all of the difference. The movie's 3-D | | | | everyday cell phones. At the show, Motorola debuted |
| experience is truly immersive, not formulaic. Another | | | | its Backflip phone with a touch surface in the back of |
| 50 3-D movies will be released in 2010. Movie | | | | a phone, allowing you to control the screen without |
| theaters love them because they give people a | | | | obstructing your view of it. The iPhone's |
| reason to come to the theater, and because they | | | | accelerometers introduced the intuitive shake or tilt |
| can't be pirated. But TV vendors love it because it | | | | functions that add more nuance to your controls. |
| will give consumers a reason to go back to stores, | | | | Synaptics, meanwhile, showed what is possible by |
| even after they've already bought their high-definition | | | | combining touch with other controls in its and Fuse |
| screens. | | | | and Scrybe demos. This should be quite useful for |
| As good as this sounds, we're not sure it's going to | | | | future phones and tablets. |
| be as big as HD TV itself. There are still lots of | | | | Gesture controls are also taking a leap forward. |
| skeptics out there who won't watch in 3-D because | | | | Microsoft said it would launch Project Natal, which has |
| it gives them a headache. They're not likely to pay | | | | camera-based sensors that can detect your full body |
| extra for it. And it could be some time still before all | | | | movements, for the Xbox 360 in the fall of 2010. |
| of the 3-D ecosystem — with content, cameras, | | | | Sony was strangely silent about its rival technology |
| TVs, and glasses — are available in a lot of homes. | | | | debuting this spring. But companies such as |
| We don't expect every movie to be as good as | | | | GestureTek, Canesta and others showed off their |
| Avatar, either. Samsung and Sharp may be able to | | | | own technologies for controlling TVs or other gear |
| boost the market some because they have | | | | with gestures. It remains to be seen how well users |
| technologies that can convert 2-D programs to 3-D | | | | will warm to these new control schemes, and how |
| on the fly. But 3-D is at least off to a good start in | | | | soon software takes advantage of it. |
| 2010 and it will trickle down from the theaters to | | | | |
| homes in due time. | | | | Mobile TV gets competitive. Qualcomm has invested |
| | | | hundreds of millions of dollars into its FloTV business. |
| Tablets by the dozen. Apple is expected to launch a | | | | The company has acquired the spectrum it needs to |
| tablet computer at the end of the month. But | | | | broadcast mobile digital TV programming wirelessly to |
| everyone at CES wanted to show off their own cool | | | | cell phones (including the iPhone) and its own FloTV |
| designs first so that they won't look like copycats. | | | | handheld player. But now it has some competition |
| Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer showed off | | | | from the Open Mobile Video Coaltion, which has |
| three tablets in his keynote, including | | | | passed a Mobile Digital TV standard. New devices |
| Hewlett-Packard's tablet. But HP was very light on | | | | based on the standard were shown at CES, but the |
| details, perhaps because it wants to wait to see | | | | battery life and usefulness are still lacking. While |
| what Apple launches. Most tablet makers would be | | | | Qualcomm has a national network with a wide |
| wise to do the same. But the foundations were all | | | | variety of programming, the Open Mobile group can |
| there at CES: touchscreens, swipe controls, content | | | | so far only produce local digital TV programming in 30 |
| such as eBooks, and chips from companies such as | | | | cities. The Open Mobile group offers the service for |
| Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom and Marvell. Tablets have | | | | free, while Qualcomm charges a subscription. Unlike |
| been around for a while, but the new ones should be | | | | the other trends, this one is still emerging and was |
| much more responsive to touch commands. Of all of | | | | evident in just a handful of booths. Like digital TV, it |
| those who have models in the works, HP will likely be | | | | may take a long time to evolve. But consumers will |
| the best challenger to Apple, says Richard Doherty, | | | | probably watch TV on their handhelds, when it |
| analyst at the Envisioneering Group. That's because | | | | comes in crystal clear video and has enough content. |
| HP has decades of experience with touchscreens, | | | | A proof point is Telegent, whose chips provide |
| has a lot of TouchSmart computers already in the | | | | analog TV programming for cell phones around the |
| market, and has a big collection of touchscreen | | | | world. Telegent is lining up an initial public offering on |
| patents as well. We only wish we saw more of it in | | | | the strength of its international business. If analog TV |
| action. | | | | can take off, then it probably means there will be |
| New devices may bring e-books to the masses. It | | | | demand for mobile digital TV. |
| looks like both device-makers and publishers are | | | | |
| expecting books to be a major part of the content | | | | Cars get smarter. Ford has seen a great deal of |
| on those tablets. After all, Microsoft's Ballmer showed | | | | success with its Sync voice-controlled car electronics |
| off the HP tablet's touchscreen by accessing an | | | | system. In surveys, 32 percent of buyers said Sync |
| Amazon Kindle application and flipping through a few | | | | was important or critical in their decisions to buy a |
| pages of the bestselling novel Twilight. Meanwhile, | | | | Ford vehicle. Ford hit its target of selling a million |
| Plastic Logic launched its Que e-book reader, which is | | | | vehicles with Sync last May. About 81 percent of |
| one of the most impressive-looking devices in its | | | | customers are satisfied with Sync and 77 percent |
| market (it had better be, since the device is also | | | | would recommend it. This week, Ford said that |
| substantially more expensive than Amazon's Kindle). | | | | developers can create apps that can run on Sync, it |
| With these devices, not to mention Apple set to | | | | will give users 3G or Wi-Fi access inside the car, and |
| announce its all-but-official tablet/e-book reader later | | | | it has redesigned its dashboard to be electronics |
| this month, readers' embrace of e-books as a | | | | friendly. You can plug in your iPods, phones, memory |
| complement or even replacement for physical books | | | | cards and other devices into the deck. |
| may ramp up dramatically in the next year. As that | | | | Not every car is going to be so connected in the |
| happens, the question is whether e-book readers can | | | | future. But Ford's moves show that the car |
| compete against fully-fledged tablets. Are the reader | | | | companies are finally moving to an annual cycle for |
| manufacturers in trouble? Will they have to make | | | | driving new technology into their vehicles, instead of |
| their devices more tablet-like to compete? | | | | the usual five years. It's also heartening to hear that |
| Oh, and the shift may not be limited traditional books | | | | we're not all heading for a big pile-up. Ford says that |
| — a startup called Graphic.ly, which was also | | | | Sync lets drivers choose a new song with voice |
| demonstrated on-stage at Ballmer's keynote, is | | | | commands in 4.9 seconds, while it takes 30 seconds |
| developing a digital comic book reader and store. | | | | without it. The company is trying to minimize |
| Netbooks are getting more and more attractive. | | | | distractions for the driver even as it adds more stuff |
| These machines make perfect sense with their | | | | for you to do while you're driving. Ford was just one |
| smaller screens, low prices, and sole purpose of | | | | example of myriad other car-related announcements |
| cruising the web. But the first generation of netbooks | | | | at CES. |
| that came out about 18 months ago had return rates | | | | Connected TVs catch on. Web-connected TVs are |
| as high as 40 percent. They didn't play games, | | | | now proliferating through the model line-ups of |
| choked on a lot of web sites, and were generally a | | | | consumer electronics companies. Last year, Yahoo |
| lousy consumer experience. Despite that, netbooks | | | | launched its Widget Engine to enable TVs to display |
| are selling in the tens of millions and there were | | | | web sites on a TV using a remote control. Samsung, |
| dozens of new models at the show. Now, with the | | | | LG, Toshiba and Sony have all shipped TVs with the |
| newest generation of low-power technology, the | | | | Widget Engine. In 2009, sales of web-connected TVs |
| category is no longer just a bunch of hype. The | | | | rose 830 percent from a small base, according to the |
| machines can live up to their billing. The latest Intel | | | | Consumer Electronics Association. This year, growth |
| Atom chips give these $400 or so machines a lot of | | | | is expected to be about 129 percent, and Yahoo |
| oomph to do tasks that once required full laptops. | | | | expects its Widget Engine will be on millions of TVs. |
| Toshiba's new Toshiba Mini NB 350 has an 11 hour | | | | That gives the TVs access to thousands of web |
| battery life. HP's new Mini 5102 netbook has a | | | | sites, ranging from Netflix to Pandora. Samsung, |
| touchscreen. About 33 million netbooks sold in 2009, | | | | which says it captured 75 percent of the |
| and that should grow 20 percent in 2010, according | | | | connected-TV market in 2009, is adding an app store |
| to market researcher DisplaySearch. The category | | | | so that users will have more choice about what they |
| will get competition from smartbooks, which are | | | | can access via the connected TVs. |
| hybrids of smart phones and netbooks, and perhaps | | | | Green tech gadgets get real. Green technology is |
| e-book readers and tablets as well. | | | | moving from the sounds good, lip-service stage to |
| Everyone's jumping on the app store band wagon, | | | | real products. The big consumer electronics |
| and they're bringing plenty of devices. After Apple | | | | companies halted their arms race of making bigger |
| found big success with its iPhone/iPod Touch App | | | | and bigger flat-panel displays (although there was an |
| Store, other smartphone makers followed suit. Now | | | | 84-inch TV on display in LG's booth). Instead, they |
| the model is moving to other devices, particularly | | | | talked up the better energy efficiency of LED TVs |
| those netbooks we mentioned. Intel announced | | | | and thinner sizes. Hewlett-Packard got rid of some |
| AppUp, which netbook makers can customize to | | | | toxic chemicals in its PCs and has switched to entirely |
| offer their own stores to customers. Samsung | | | | degradeable packaging. About 20 companies displayed |
| announced its store too, which appears to use | | | | their wares in a green tech zone on the show floor. |
| AppUp technology. Netbooks seem like the obvious | | | | And most big TV makers had flat-panel displays in |
| next step for this model, since they sit between the | | | | their booths with wattage data. |